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Kamala Harris is significantly outspending Donald Trump as they enter the final month of the U.S. presidential election campaign. Both candidates are investing tens of millions of dollars in television advertisements ahead of the November 5 contest, according to recent financial disclosures.
SpaceX successfully launched 20 spare OneWeb satellites on October 20 to enhance Eutelsat's low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband network. With this launch, Eutelsat now has 654 satellites in orbit, aiming to begin global services in the spring despite ground infrastructure delays. The Falcon 9 rocket's first-stage booster landed successfully, marking SpaceX's 357th recovery of an orbital-class booster.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, healthcare remains a pivotal issue, with costs soaring to $4.5 trillion, representing 17.3% of GDP. Candidates are addressing medical debt, with 20 million Americans owing $220 billion; Vice President Harris proposes measures to alleviate this, while former President Trump focuses on reducing insurance premiums and improving price transparency.
The dollar has gained momentum from the resurgence of the "Trump trade," as Donald Trump's presidential prospects improve. However, UBS cautions that while a Trump victory may provide a temporary boost, the dollar's long-term outlook remains limited, advising against holding onto stronger rallies. Emerging market currencies like the South African rand and Mexican peso are seen as favorable options for medium-term gains.
The debt collection industry, bolstered by private-equity investments, opposes a federal proposal to remove medical debts from credit reports, arguing it could lead to increased defaults and reduced revenue for healthcare providers. While proponents believe it would alleviate financial burdens on consumers, critics warn it may result in more lawsuits and hinder lenders' ability to assess borrowers' financial health. The debate highlights the broader issues within the U.S. healthcare system, where rising medical costs have left many Americans with significant debt.
The U.S. economic surprise index has surged, driven by strong retail sales and improved jobless claims, leading to a sharp rise in the 10-year yield and the Dollar Index. However, despite a favorable economic outlook and rising Trump poll numbers fueling market optimism, the SP500's high valuation raises concerns about potential risks from prolonged high rates and fiscal deficits.
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Gold prices have surged to a record high, reaching $2,706 per troy ounce, with analysts at UBS predicting a rise to $2,900 by September 2025. This increase is driven by falling interest rates, strong central bank purchases, and ongoing demand for safe investments amid global uncertainties. Political factors and monetary easing from central banks, including the European Central Bank's recent rate cuts, are expected to further support gold prices in the coming weeks.
UBS economist Paul Donovan highlights a disconnect between sentiment surveys and actual economic performance, particularly in manufacturing. Despite frequent negative signals from surveys, real manufacturing output has remained stable, suggesting that pessimistic biases in sentiment do not reflect economic reality. This issue is more pronounced in Europe due to limited data releases and delays in reporting.
Financial journalism often conflates sentiment with economic reality, leading to contradictory headlines about manufacturing output. Despite pessimistic sentiment surveys, actual manufacturing performance has remained stable, particularly in the US and Germany, where media emphasis on negative sentiment can distort perceptions of the economy. Investors should be cautious, as these surveys tend to reflect a pessimistic bias that does not align with the true economic situation.
The upcoming U.S. elections could significantly impact commodity markets, with a potential Kamala Harris victory likely boosting demand for industrial metals and renewable energy materials due to increased infrastructure spending. Conversely, a Trump re-election may favor fossil fuels through deregulation and support for domestic production, affecting agricultural exports and trade relations. Both scenarios will influence the U.S. dollar, indirectly impacting commodity prices.
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